# Road Freight Rates in Europe, Autumn 2026: Record Diesel, Record Prices

> European road freight rates hit a record as diesel passed EUR 2.20 a litre. The latest indices, what drives them, and how shippers and carriers can respond.

- Published: 2026-10-08
- Updated: 2026-10-08
- Language: en
- URL: https://www.start2load.com/en/blog/european-road-freight-rates-autumn-2026
- Other languages: lt: https://www.start2load.com/lt/blog/kroviniu-pervezimo-kainos-europoje-2026-ruduo, ru: https://www.start2load.com/ru/blog/stavki-na-gruzoperevozki-v-evrope-osen-2026
- Publisher: Start2Load (https://www.start2load.com), a freight exchange for partial and full loads in the Baltics and the EU

## Where rates stand

European road freight rates are at their highest level on record. The benchmark published by Transport Intelligence, Upply and the IRU put the **contract rate index at 148.0 points** in the second quarter of 2026, up 7.9 points on the quarter and 15.2 points on the year. The **spot index reached 146.8**, up 14.6 points in a single quarter.

| Quarter | Contract index | Spot index |
| --- | --- | --- |
| Q4 2025 | 136.9 | 135.1 |
| Q1 2026 | 140.1 | 132.3 |
| Q2 2026 | 148.0 | 146.8 |

The third-quarter edition had not been published when this article was written. The exchanges tell the same story in the meantime: Timocom's barometer for the second quarter showed freight offers up 23.8% on a year earlier while truck offers fell 10.8%, and the average price offered by shippers across Europe rose 12.8% to EUR 1.81 per km.

The authors of the benchmark do not expect relief soon: "Rates are likely to stay elevated through the second half of 2026 as costs continue to be passed on."

## The main reason is diesel

Fuel prices have been climbing since the conflict with Iran broke out at the end of February 2026 and disrupted tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. According to the European Commission's Weekly Oil Bulletin, the EU average diesel price reached **EUR 2.237 per litre on 28 September**, the highest in a series that starts in 2005. On 5 October it stood at EUR 2.149, against EUR 1.538 a year earlier, a rise of about 40%.

| Country | Diesel, 5 October 2026 | A year earlier |
| --- | --- | --- |
| Lithuania | EUR 2.241 | EUR 1.472 |
| Latvia | EUR 2.120 | EUR 1.516 |
| Estonia | EUR 2.096 | EUR 1.301 |
| Poland | EUR 1.764 | EUR 1.408 |
| Germany | EUR 2.254 | EUR 1.590 |

Two countries on the way west have just cut fuel taxes. Germany lowered energy tax on diesel and petrol by 14.04 cents per litre from 1 October to 31 December 2026. Poland cut fuel VAT from 23% to 8% and lowered diesel excise from 3 October to the end of the year, which is why Polish diesel is now almost half a euro cheaper than Lithuanian.

In Lithuania the direction is the opposite for now: the CO2 part of diesel excise is scheduled to rise on 1 January 2027, adding about 9.4 cents per litre, although the Finance Ministry has said it will review the increase before then. As Linava president Erlandas Mikėnas put it, it is not national borders that decide where a carrier buys fuel, but the final price per litre.

> Rates this year are moved by cost, not by demand. Upply's chief executive described contract and spot rates as "once again moving in tandem, driven more by cost pressures than by freight demand."

## The other costs did not wait

- **Drivers.** The IRU's June 2026 report counts about 502,000 unfilled truck driver jobs in Europe, 13% of all positions, and expects around a fifth of today's drivers to retire within five years.
- **Tolls.** Poland's e-TOLL rise in February added about a third to the toll bill of a standard Euro VI truck, the Netherlands started charging per kilometre in July, and Lithuania follows in January 2027. We cover this in [our guide to truck tolls in 2026 and 2027](https://www.start2load.com/en/blog/truck-tolls-europe-2026-2027).
- **Money.** The European Central Bank raised its key interest rates by a quarter point on 10 September 2026, which makes leasing and working capital dearer.
- **AdBlue.** DSV's May market update reported urea prices up 57% on the year.

## Capacity is leaving the market

Higher costs are pushing carriers out, which tightens supply further:

- In **Lithuania**, 37 bankruptcy processes started in transport and storage in the first quarter of 2026, against 25 a year earlier.
- In **Poland**, more than 1,700 companies with a Community licence left the register in the first quarter while about 900 entered.
- In **Germany**, 18 forwarding and transport companies with turnover above EUR 10 million filed for insolvency in the first half of 2026, three times as many as a year before.

**Price the route before you quote** Distance, driving time and estimated fuel cost between any two places in Europe, free and without an account. [Open the route calculator](https://www.start2load.com/en/route-calculator)

## Is demand coming back?

Slowly. Road trade between the large EU economies was still down 1.6% on the year in the second quarter. But the eurozone manufacturing index rose to 52.9 in September, its highest since May 2022, and new orders in German industry have grown for four months in a row. More freight meeting fewer trucks is not a recipe for falling prices.

## One cost was postponed: EU ETS2

The EU's second emissions trading system, which will put a carbon price on road fuel, was due to start in 2027. Regulation (EU) 2026/667 postponed it to 2028. The Commission's own estimate is that a carbon price of EUR 48 per tonne adds about 13 cents to a litre of diesel. It is a cost deferred, not cancelled, so it belongs in any contract that runs past 2027.

## What to do about it

**If you ship goods:**

- **Agree a fuel clause.** Tie the fuel part of the price to a public figure such as the Commission's Weekly Oil Bulletin, with a threshold before it moves. Both sides then argue about facts, not feelings.
- **Book earlier and give a window.** A carrier who can fit your load around another one will quote less than one who has to run empty to meet a fixed hour.
- **Do not pay for air.** If you fill a third of a trailer, pay for a third. Posting a partial load lets carriers already on the lane price the space they have left.

**If you run trucks:**

- **Quote with today's numbers.** Work out fuel for the actual route with the [route calculator](https://www.start2load.com/en/route-calculator) and add tolls per country.
- **Sell the empty metres.** With diesel above two euros, the return leg and the unused half of a trailer are the cheapest margin you will find. Post your free space and let shippers come to you.

## Frequently asked questions

### Why are freight rates increasing in 2026?

Mainly because of fuel. Diesel in the EU is about 40% dearer than a year ago after the conflict with Iran disrupted oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz, and carriers are passing the cost on. Driver shortages, higher tolls and carriers leaving the market add to it.

### How high are European road freight rates now?

The Ti, Upply and IRU benchmark put the contract rate index at 148.0 points and the spot index at 146.8 in the second quarter of 2026, both the highest on record. A year earlier they were about 15 and 14 points lower.

### What does diesel cost in Europe today?

On 5 October 2026 the EU average was EUR 2.149 per litre according to the European Commission's Weekly Oil Bulletin. Lithuania was at EUR 2.241, Germany at EUR 2.254 and Poland at EUR 1.764 after its tax cut.

### Will freight rates go down?

The authors of the main European benchmark expect rates to stay elevated through the second half of 2026 as costs continue to be passed on. Weaker industrial demand would limit how far they can rise, but manufacturing orders have been improving.

### What is a fuel clause or fuel floater?

It is a term in a transport contract that adjusts the price when fuel moves by more than an agreed percentage, measured against a public source such as the Commission's Weekly Oil Bulletin. It spreads fuel risk between shipper and carrier.

### When does EU ETS2 start for road transport?

In 2028. Regulation (EU) 2026/667 postponed the start by one year from 2027. The Commission estimates that a carbon price of EUR 48 per tonne adds about 13 cents to a litre of diesel.

## Sources

- [IRU: European contract and spot rates accelerate as fuel costs are passed on, Q2 2026 benchmark (11 August 2026)](https://www.iru.org/news-resources/newsroom/european-contract-and-spot-rates-accelerate-fuel-costs-are-passed)
- [Transport Intelligence: European road freight rates Q2 2026](https://ti-insight.com/briefs/european-road-freight-rates-q2-2026/)
- [Upply: general increase in road freight rates in Europe in Q2 2026](https://market-insights.upply.com/en/general-increase-in-road-freight-rates-in-europe-in-q2-2026)
- [European Commission: Weekly Oil Bulletin (fuel prices by country)](https://energy.ec.europa.eu/data-and-analysis/weekly-oil-bulletin_en)
- [Euronews: EU fuel prices hit records as ECB experts see diesel margins peak in October (19 September 2026)](https://www.euronews.com/2026/09/19/eu-fuel-prices-hit-records-as-ecb-experts-see-diesel-margins-peak-in-october)
- [German customs: temporary reduction of energy tax from 1 October 2026](https://www.zoll.de/SharedDocs/Fachmeldungen/Aktuelle-Einzelmeldungen/2026/vst_energie_voruebergehende_senkung_energiesteuer_2.html)
- [LRT: fuel prices and the planned rise in diesel excise from the new year (22 September 2026)](https://www.lrt.lt/naujienos/verslas/4/3059324/dideles-degalu-kainos-nuo-naujuju-dar-kils-akcizas-dyzelina-pabrangins-10-centu)
- [IRU: operators deeply concerned by worsening driver shortage (30 June 2026)](https://www.iru.org/news-resources/newsroom/operators-deeply-concerned-worsening-driver-shortage-new-iru-report)
- [Timocom transport barometer, second quarter of 2026 (15 July 2026)](https://www.logrealdirekt.de/2026/07/15/4096/timocom-transportbarometer-steigende-nachfrage-praegt-zweites-quartal-im-europaeischen-spotmarkt/)
- [Trans.info: bankruptcies of transport companies in Lithuania (20 August 2026)](https://trans.info/lt/transporto-imoniu-bankrotai-sove-i-virsu-497901)
- [European Central Bank: monetary policy decisions (10 September 2026)](https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2026/html/ecb.mp260910~314e508016.en.html)
- [Regulation (EU) 2026/667 postponing ETS2 to 2028 (EUR-Lex)](https://eur-lex.europa.eu/eli/reg/2026/667/oj)